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QUANTITATIVE LANDSLIDE RISK ANALYSIS AND RISK EVALUATION FOR PUBLICLY ACCESSIBLE GEOSITES (2006)

Risk analysis and risk evaluation are increasingly used tools for mitigating geohazards. It is commonly accepted that risk is basically a function of likelihood and consequence. However, the quantification of the likelihood of a geohazard occurring, as well as the prediction of its consequences, is a difficult task. Therefore, it is important to develop structured geohazard risk management frameworks. Even if the results produced with such frameworks might be considered as rough estimates, they will certainly be useful tools to identify areas of potentially higher risk. This paper presents a quantitative landslide risk evaluation framework for a publicly accessible geosite which is declared an UNESCO World Heritage. A risk evaluation for this frequently visited geosite is necessary since it is affected by landslide hazards. The types of landslides were classified by their geometry (shallow and deep landslides), their mechanisms and their triggering events. Spatial extent, volume, velocity and travel distance of existing deep landslides were investigated by intensive geotechnical monitoring. The probability of landsliding was estimated using formal probabilistic analysis. Additionally, the historic occurrence of landsliding was related to rainfall intensity and antecedent rainfall. Consequence analysis includes property damage (roads, visitor tracks, viewing platform) and injury/loss of life for both visitors and scientists. Since some elements at risk are mobile (visitors etc.) a temporal probability had to be introduced which takes also into account the varying occupancy of buildings and visitor tracks. By integrating the different hazard models, frequency analysis and consequence analysis, risk levels for annual loss of property and annual loss of life at different locations were compute.
Reference:
The 10th IAEG International Congress, Nottingham, United Kingdom, 6-10 September 2006, Paper number 222
Organization:
TU Darmstadt, Institute for Applied Geosciences
Germany
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