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NEW NATIONAL SEISMIC HAZARD MODEL FOR NEW ZEALAND: CHANGES TO ESTIMATED LONG-TERM HAZARD (2012)

We compare site-specific response spectra and hazard maps from the recently-updated national seismic hazard model (2010 NSHM) and predecessor NSHM of 2002. The new model  incorporates over 200 new onshore and offshore fault sources, and utilises newly-developed New Zealand-based scaling relationships and methods for the parameterisation of the fault and subduction interface sources. The distributed seismicity model has also been updated to include new seismicity data, a new seismicity regionalisation, and improved methodology for calculation of the seismicity parameters. The new spectra and maps show some significant reductions to estimated hazard in areas dominated by the distributed seismicity model (e.g. Auckland and Northland), increases in the Wellington region due to the new Hikurangi subduction zone model, and some reductions along some major faults in the South Island. Future improvements to the NSHM will include the treatment of epistemic uncertainties (source models and ground motion prediction equations), incorporation of GPS data into the distributed seismicity model, nationally-based integration of time-dependent seismicity modelling methodologies, and inclusion of formal testing methodologies in the model. 
Reference:
NZSEE Annual Technical Conference & AGM, 13-15 April 2012, Christchurch
Organization:
GNS Science, Lower Hutt, New Zealand
New Zealand
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