Worldwide, there is growing interest in the development of a rational reliability-based geotechnical design code. The reasons for this interest are at least two-fold; first, geotechnical engineers face significantly more uncertainties than those faced in other fields of engineering, therefore there is a need to properly characterize and deal with these uncertainties. Second, for decades, structural engineers have used a reliability-based design code, and there is a need to develop the same for geotechnical engineers, in order that the two groups can ‘speak the same language’. This paper develops a theoretical model to predict the probability that a shallow foundation will exceed its supporting soil's bearing capacity. The footing is designed using characteristic soil properties (cohesion and friction angle) derived from a single sample, or ‘core’, taken in the vicinity of the footing, and used in a load and resistance factor design approach. The theory predicting failure probability is validated using a two-dimensional random finite element method analysis of a strip footing. Agreement between theory and simulation is found to be very good. Therefore, the theory can be used with confidence to perform risk assessments of foundation designs and develop resistance factors for use in code provisions.