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The assessment of rock-fall hazard in appointed regions of the Bavarian Alps involves the evaluation of occurrence probability and intensity of the potential events. A systematic approach is presented, which allows to establish a regional comparability of the rock-fall hazard determinations. This method is based on simple field-geological data and observations. The rock-fall probability, on the one hand, can be estimated by classifying the rock-fall disposition of the detachment areas and their degree of activity. The rock-fall disposition is the total of geological and geomechanical criteria, that influence the likelihood of rock-fall processes. Furthermore, the role of external influences, like earthquakes and extreme precipitation by heavy rainfalls, and their likelihood as triggering events are discussed. The combination of the above parameters and the quantification procedure for the probability assessment follow mathematical models which are similar to those used in rock mass classifications. On the other hand, the intensity of potential rock-falls, which can be defined by the rock volume and its kinematics, is subdivided into four categories. Finally, the combination of probability and intensity leads to a matrix model, which distinguishes different types of hazards. Without applying complex numerical models, the presented rock-fall matrix model resembles a practical method enabling reasonable and reproducible determinations of rock-fall probability and intensity based on geological field expertise.

ISGSR 2011 - Vogt, Schuppener, Straub & Bräu (eds) - © 2011 Bundesanstalt für Wasserbau ISBN 978-3-939230-01-4
Baugeologisches Büro Bauer GmbH
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