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PROBABILISTIC METHODOLOGY FOR ESTIMATION OF NUMBER AND ECONOMIC LOSS (COST) OF FUTURE LANDSLIDES IN THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY REGION, CALIFORNIA (2008)

The Probabilistic Landslide Assessment Cost Estimation System (PLACES) presented in this report estimates the number and economic loss (cost) of landslides during a specified future time in individual areas, and then calculates the sum of those estimates. The analytic probabilistic methodology is based upon conditional probability theory and laws of expectation and variance. The probabilistic methodology is expressed in the form of a Microsoft Excel computer spreadsheet program. Using historical records, the PLACES spreadsheet is used to estimate the number of future damaging landslides and total damage, as economic loss, from future landslides caused by rainstorms in 10 counties of the San Francisco Bay region in California. Estimates are made for any future 5-year period of time.
Reference:
Open-File Report 2008-1116
Organization:
USGS
USA
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