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Most moderate and large earthquakes trigger landslides, and these landslides commonly account for a significant portion of total earthquake damage and injuries. Thus, formulating scenarios where earthquake-induced landslides are likely to occur can help local authorities plan emergency response and mitigate landslide risk. We are developing a method to quantify the effects of landslides triggered by earthquakes using both deterministic and probabilistic seismic-hazard scenarios. Seismic shaking and the resulting slope performance are integrated in a capacity-demand analysis that estimates the probability that a specified threshold slope performance will be exceeded. Then, an expected damage distribution is estimated for a set of exposed elements, given the response to the landslide effects (i.e., fragility functions). Finally, the expected losses are estimated by relating the damage distribution to a real-estate inventory. This methodology is outlined in a prospectus for a research project funded by the Italian Ministry for the University and Research, in which we describe the logic and mathematics of the method, the GIS tools to be used, and some preliminary results obtained for a test area in Central Italy. We are currently developing a more rigorous probabilistic approach to compute losses and are applying it to test areas in southern California using data from the 1994 Northridge earthquake.

University of Urbino, ITALY
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